Supply Chain Disruptions will Cause Problems

You’ve probably heard or read about the supply chain disruptions that are expected during the upcoming holiday season. As a matter of fact, if you’re a shopper or consumer – and who isn’t – you’ve probably already witnessed this harmful phenomenon in supermarkets, car dealerships, and other establishments where you do business. To a greater or lesser degree – empty shelves.

Some say it will be worse while others say this is part of a worldwide conspiracy to boost prices. In any case, you have to be armed with proper information with which to challenge your suppliers as well as to explain delays and shortages to your customers.

I found two easily understandable explanations and I propose for your edification.

One was prepared by Martin Brothers Distributing Co. Inc. that takes viewers through logistics of distribution. The Midwestern company is a highly regarded, leading foodservice distribution business but its clarifications are translatable to other industries. Here is its Facebook and YouTube versions: 

https://www.facebook.com/MartinBrosDist/videos/2986501951603363/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oa7dGyQI388

Another source was prepared by Kevin Coupe of Morning News Beat – I recommend this site for your daily reading.

Using explanations offered by Stu Leonard, the supermarket guru, Coup explains how to talk to your customers about what’s going on in the supply chain: https://morningnewsbeat.com/2021/11/08/monday-eye-opener-how-to-talk-to-customers-about-supply-chain-issues/

I hope this helps you alleviate some of the confusion and meet the challenges of doing business today.

Global Businesses Commit Selves to Helping Governments Reduce Carbon Emissions

More than 90 CEOs of large multinational American for foreign organizations, all members of the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, have committed themselves in an open letter to world leaders that will attend COP26 to reducing emissions by more than 1Gt annually by 2030 and expressed their belief that businesses can do more if world leaders reach agreement at the Glasgow conference that would put the world on a 1.5° pathway.

Although governments representing over 60% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions are now committed to net-zero emissions goals, only 12% of emissions are addressed by sector-specific policies and regulations. This group of CEOs calls on world leaders to take the unique opportunity COP26 presents and do more together to create a better world for people today and for generations to come.

The suggestions expressed in this letter are not restricted to large businesses. Indeed, small businesses on America’s Main Streets can do their share to help the process. Small business owners can keep an eye out for unnecessary and detrimental behavior such as overnight lighting, leaky faucets, waste disposal, travel, networking with likeminded business leaders and spreading the word.

Following is the text of an open letter ahead of COP26, which will last October 31 to November 12, that was published today:

We, the Alliance of CEO Climate Leaders, stand ready to work side-by-side with governments in a joint public-private effort to accelerate the race to net-zero.

We believe that after the publication of the recent IPCC report, we should use the COP26 in Glasgow as our best chance to agree the steps that are required to halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and build nature-positive economies.

We therefore call on governments to:

• Publish ambitious and 1.5°C-aligned Nationally Determined Contributions that at least halve global emissions by 2030 and commit to global net-zero by 2050, underpinned by robust policy roadmaps and interim targets

• Ensure that developed countries meet and exceed their $100 billion commitment to support developing countries’ efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change, and ensure the major development finance institutions also commit to science-based guidelines across their lending portfolios

We have impact and take responsibility: members of our Alliance represent some of the largest organizations on the planet, which employ over 8 million people. All members have committed to set or have already set Paris-aligned targets across their value chains, which would mitigate over 1Gt of emissions annually by 2030.

We will and must do more, but we can’t do it alone. We need bold climate policy agreements at COP26 to keep a chance to limit the global average temperature increase to 1.5°C and achieve a just transition.

In addition to the detailed sector-specific policy recommendations in our open letter from June, we have identified three key points that would help us and other businesses accelerate emission reductions, scale up innovations and achieve a net-zero world by 2050:

• Eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, cut tariffs on climate-friendly goods, develop market-based, meaningful and broadly accepted carbon pricing mechanisms and take adequate measures to ensure a just transition. An escalating carbon price is a critical enabler for greater competitiveness of low-carbon technologies. In parallel, international cooperation on a global, connected carbon market should ensure broad market access for these low-carbon technologies, while controlling carbon leakage.

• Support and incentivize first-movers, including to scale existing, proven solutions across value chains (especially in carbon-intensive sectors) and to develop new technologies. Governments can make the difference to help scale up and accelerate the transition, including through effective and harmonized laws and regulations that enable a speedy deployment of key technologies and systematic public procurement of low-carbon products.

• Invest in climate adaptation: create resilient cities, supply chains and infrastructure by scaling natural disaster defenses and risk transfer solutions, and by advancing climate-resilient, sustainable food production and securing water supplies.

The Alliance also encourages all business leaders to set (science-based) targets to halve emissions by 2030 and reach net-zero by 2050 with a clear roadmap on how to get there as well as to provide transparency on emissions and their financial impact, for example in line with the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD).

We are ready to work side-by-side with governments to scale up public-private efforts this decade in the race to net-zero. Members of the Alliance will be in person in Glasgow and look forward to discussing with world leaders, government officials and representatives of the NGO community the many ways we can tackle this climate crisis together.

You Wouldn’t Throw Raw Sewage into Rivers, Would You?

Our society, including the business community from corporate America to Main Street, are abuzz about climate change – the excessive dumping of carbon waste into the atmosphere that threatens the air we breathe – Sustainable Development Goal #13.

The media are replete with information and pleas for all of us to stop and listen.

How can we reduce the amount of carbon waste that we’re discarding into the atmosphere? Realistically, there are two methods, which brings me to a story that I heard recently on BBC World News.

Today’s situation is not historically unique since humanity has faced similar deleterious behaviors in the course of its history, one of which pertains to another form of waste – ours, human.

The Mesopotamians introduced the world to clay sewer pipes around 4000 BCE, while the flush toilet was invented in 1596 but didn’t become widespread until 1851. So what was a rural and urban family to do? By and large it disposed of its raw human waste into local rivers, which gave rise to a host of diseases, among them cholera even bubonic plague. But when a reasonably smart, farsighted individual who remains unknown to history may have suggested that you shouldn’t do that because it threatens our health, he or she may have been greeted with the derisive reply of “So, what are we supposed to do with it? Where should we dispose of our waste?”

As you know, technology and behavioral awareness came to the rescue.

Before sewers, toilets and in time water treatment facilities became widespread and we first had to realize that we couldn’t go on polluting our supply of drinking water. Consequently, we – our ancestors – had to change our behavior.

The same can be applied to our treatment – or rather mistreatment – of the atmosphere. Indeed, technology will come to the rescue but until a practical, inexpensive process of cleaning our supply of breathable air is developed, we – society, businesses and individuals – will have to first thoroughly recognize that we can’t go on ad nauseam polluting our air.

And now we have arrived at the critical point in our evolution when hundreds of top scientists released a shocking report on the danger that human-caused climate change poses to the world.  Categorizing it as a “code red for humanity,” the landmark report was released in Geneva by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The evidence is clear that carbon dioxide is the main driver of climate change, even as other greenhouse gases and air pollutants play a role, the report says.

The 3,500-page report “provides an unprecedented degree of clarity about the future of our planet, and the need to reduce – and ultimately eliminate – our emissions of greenhouse gases,” said Zeke Hausfather of the Breakthrough Institute, a global environmental research center.

However, they warn that worst is yet to come if we don’t change our behavior.

The report, which calls climate change clearly human-caused and “unequivocal,” makes more precise and warmer forecasts for the 21st century than it did last time it was issued, in 2013.

The report projects that in the coming decades, climate changes will increase in all regions. For a mere 1.5 degrees C of global warming, there will be increasing heat waves, longer warm seasons and shorter cold seasons; at 2 degrees C of global warming, heat extremes would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health, the report shows. Avoiding 1.5 degrees of warming is all but impossible, but scientists believe we can still keep warming around that critical threshold and avoid the worsening impacts that come from approaching and passing 2 degrees of warming.

Just as the report clearly blames carbon pollution for the rising temperatures, it is also clear that the only way to slow down and eventually reverse the warming is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero.

Here are some specific impacts and what the report has to say about them.

• Heat waves – Extreme heat waves, such as the deadly one that occurred in the Pacific Northwest and Canada earlier this summer, are already about five times more likely to occur with our current warming of just over 1 degree C. At 2 degrees warming, this frequency increases to 14 times as likely to occur. Heat waves are getting hotter, and with 2 degrees of warming, the hottest temperatures would reach nearly 3 degrees C (5 degrees F) higher than previous heat waves.

• Droughts – Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of droughts – such as the current drought plaguing the western United States. Severe droughts that used to occur an average of once per decade are now occurring about 70% more frequently. If warming continues to 2 degrees, these droughts will occur between two and three times as often.

• Flooding – Climate change is intensifying the water cycle on both sides. While more intense evaporation will lead to more droughts, warmer air can hold more water vapor to produce extreme rainfall (as we have seen play out dramatically in Western Europe and China this summer). On average, the frequency of heavy downpours has already increased by about 30% and they contain about 7% more water.

• Hurricanes – Hurricanes are growing stronger and producing more rain as global temperatures increase. It has already been observed that, globally, a higher percentage of storms are reaching the highest categories (categories 3, 4 and 5) in recent decades. This is expected to continue as temperatures climb.

• Sea level rise – Sea level is rising around the world, and the rate is increasing. This is worsening high-tide flooding and storm surge. By 2100, once-in-a-century coastal flood events will occur at least once per year at more than half of coastlines across the world, the report said.

• Weather whiplash – Climate change is not just increasing the severity of extreme weather, it is interrupting the natural patterns, leading to “weather whiplash,” which are wild swings between dry and wet extremes. This has been experienced recently in California, with “atmospheric rivers” causing destructive floods one year and extreme drought causing water shortages the next.

That’s the 50,000-foot point of view. Now for the ground-level one. Small business owners have a voice in this process and can contribute to alleviating the threat – or at least slowing it down. Sustainable practices such as energy, fuel, and water efficiency, along with material reuse and conservation, help reduce emissions and costs while conserving our natural resources. Every business can take simple steps at little to no cost to become more sustainable.

As with everything that pertains to sustainability, reducing carbon emissions and addressing climate change is good for business not only because green practices will save you money but you will add to your bottom lines because your customers by and large favor sustainability and green businesses. It improves your image. Consequently, they will search for your products and services.

What to do?

Small businesses should focus on the ubiquitous phrase “reduce, reuse, recycle” – It has been shown to help. Small business owners new to the green movement will find their starting line here. The Three Rs should apply to every facet of your business – from packaging, to office supplies, to operations, and supply chains. Always choose reducing and reusing first, as these practices skim the excess. When there’s no reusable alternative or reusing simply doesn’t work for your business, start a recycling program in your office.

Food waste occurs at every stage of the food system and accounts for 8% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, food recovery is not only an environmental crisis but also a business one. Your business doesn’t have to be a restaurant or grocery store to reduce food waste. An office that caters from local fares can still reduce their overall waste. By purchasing from other businesses that support local farmers and the community, you are indirectly reducing food waste by minimizing transportation in the food system. Additionally, creating an office compost program will recycle food waste into fertilizer.

Carbon offsets are a form of trade in which your supply chain may be interested. When you purchase an offset, you are funding projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Keep in mind that carbon offsets don’t reduce the amount of carbon in the atmosphere – they act as a balancing agent to negate the carbon emitted. Depending on what company you purchase your offsets from, they can be tax-deductible. We recommend including your offset costs in your annual budget.

While carbon offsets come with their own controversy they can be a convenient last resort when you’ve exhausted other options. Additionally, if the company you purchase from is transparent with their projects, carbon offsets can be a useful tool towards neutrality.

Consider renewable energy. Solar and wind rank as the two fastest-growing jobs in America; electric vehicle production is growing, and utility companies are incorporating renewables in their portfolios. In 2019, purchasing renewable energy for your office space is a long-term investment. For conventional workplaces existing on an established power grid, this may pose a significant challenge. In these cases, you can reduce your consumption by using high-efficiency lighting and powering off all electronics when not in use. And to be proactive with clean energy, purchasing Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs) demonstrates your office’s commitment to clean energy. You may also find it easier to convert your home office to on-site renewables. Depending on where you live, your local government may also offer subsidies and rebates.

In this vein, transportation is one of the largest sectors of greenhouse gas emissions. By encouraging your employees to take public transit, to carpool with other colleagues living close by or by giving them discounts on public transportation, companies can significantly reduce their indirect CO2 emissions and therefore their impact on climate change.

Use green refrigerants and appliances. Both refrigerators and air conditioning units release harmful chemicals and greenhouse gases that damage the atmosphere. The original culprits, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), were responsible for tearing a hole in the ozone layer in the 1980s. While these chemicals are not in use anymore, their replacement hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are still 1,000 to 9,000 times more potent than CO2 in terms of climate impact. Luckily, green tech has cleaner, friendlier alternatives: GreenFreeze fridges by Greenpeace and smart refrigerators. When your company refrigerator has reached the end of its life, choose to dispose or recycle it responsibly with a RAD facility.

As odd as it may sound, use sustainable web-hosting services. Hosting services are regarded as the invisible fossil fuel consumers. Unless you host your site yourself, your website likely lives on a data server in a warehouse powered by fossil fuels. Data servers consume huge amounts of energy because they need to be powered on and kept cool at all times. Sustainable hosting services purchase Renewable Energy Certificates to claim their renewable energy usage.

The Green Business Network is home to several certified sustainable hosting members like CanvasHost and Sustainable Hosting. By negating the environmental and social costs of fossil fuel-powered hosting, our members are leaders in green computer services.

Utilize Fairtrade. The least carbon-intensive option is the one that has traveled the fewest miles; however, the reality is that international trade will not stop for climate change. Sustainable solutions in globalization are imperative to reducing your business’s carbon footprint. This is where Fairtrade can help. Smallholder farmers in developing countries are and will be disproportionately affected by climate change. Fairtrade organizations aim to equip farmers with the tools to adapt to and combat climate change, such as developing nutrient-rich soils and investing in reforestation projects. These projects not only sequester carbon but foster environmentally sustainable agricultural production as well.

Educate yourself, your staff, your trading partners and your customers. Change begins with knowledge. More than half of Americans rarely – if ever – casually talk about climate change over cocktails because they don’t know enough, are overwhelmed, or think it’s scary. Nonetheless, they are interested in sustainability especially the millennials. All of these can be remedied with education and civil conversation around the topic. Your business can promote dialogue among your employees through company practices and policies around sustainability. Making your customers aware of your policies to reduce carbon emissions makes them aware of tactics they can use to reduce emissions as well.

You are not alone trying to make a buck. You have trading partners along your supply chain. Each company also has a responsibility regarding the partners it chooses. Choosing a supplier is also an environmentally-friendly choice (or not, depending on the supplier). Therefore, companies should make the effort to choose suppliers who demonstrate they have good environmental practices.

Raise your business voice: Support policy initiatives. Network and partner – that’s Sustainable Development Goal #17. Did you know your business has a voice? Customers want to purchase from a business that aligns with your values are good for the bottom line, too. 87% of customers will purchase a product from a company that advocated for an issue they care about, and 82% of Fortune 500 employees want to work for the CEO of a company that is vocal about social issues. Depending on your supply chain and workers, this could include anything among the spectrums of human rights, climate change, cultural values, and public health, to name a few.

Turning your business into a green, sustainable enterprise is limited only by your dedication and creativity. It really is a no-brainer. In New Jersey, small business can turn for advice to the New Jersey Small Business Development Centers (NJSBDC) or the New Jersey Sustainable Business Council. 

Hispanic Business Owners Ready to Restart after Pandemic

Commiserating at the recent Hispanic Chamber of Commerce reception are Fernando Garcia, Creavista; Danilo Melan, SHCCNJ membership coordinator; Massoud Ansari, Domino’s Pizza; Luis O. De La Hoz, chairman of the SHCCNJ; Antonio Perez, Site Drainer; Lisbeth Castillo, SHCCNJ, and Nelson Bohorquez, Allesig Group.

Alejandra Giron of Valley Bank chats with Vincent Vicari of the NJSBDC in Ramapo College at the SHCCNJ networking event.

A couple of hundred members of the Statewide Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of New Jersey (SHCCNJ) beat the heat last Friday afternoon and spent a few hours commiserating with friends and colleagues about business and sharing best practices at the group’s Summer Networking event at Dos Cubano Restaurant in West New York, NJ.

With the pandemic apparently ending or slowing down and restrictions easing or disappearing completely, this group of Hispanic business owners is eager to return to their commercial endeavors because, as Luis O. De La Hoz, chairman of the board of the directors of the SHCCNJ, told me, they don’t have any alternative. They don’t have a plan B to survive because their businesses are their livelihoods – their lives.

“Entrepreneurship is how we overcome poverty,” De La Hoz said.

The Hispanic chamber of commerce is the largest chamber of commerce in the Garden State, according to him. It has 5,000 members and represents more than 120,000 Hispanic business owners. It annually records $20 billion in gross sales.

Fortunately, none of the members were forced out of business due to the pandemic though early on they did comply with the regulations to temporarily close their doors.

Among the problems faced by Hispanic businesses, De La Hoz said, are access to capital, access to new markets, access to networks, and the digital gap. In order to help bridge the digital gap, De La Hoz said the chamber would organize an on-line Business Expo on July 20.

Among the attendees was Vincent Vicari, regional director of the New Jersey Small Business Development Center at Ramapo College, who was ready to provide advice and guidance to the Hispanic entrepreneurs.

For membership information, visit the SHCCNJ website at https://shccnj.org/.

To get in contact with Vince Vicari regarding NJSBDC assistance to small businesses, contact him at https://njsbdc.com/njsbdc-at-ramapo-college/.

Marketing & Foodservice Insights as Businesses Reopen

I came across these interesting news items for small businesses as their owners begin the reopening process.

Without a doubt, all businesses need marketing in order to reach their customers and prospects. However, if you decide to select a spokesperson for your product make sure that you vet your candidate before you put him or her in front of a camera or on an advertisement.

Business owners select a marketing spokesperson because his or her positive notoriety will reach a receptive audience with an effective message about your product and company.

What makes a good spokesperson? They must be knowledgeable and conversant on script as well as off script. An effective spokesperson must have a wide knowledge of the product, issue or organization that he or she represents. An effective spokesperson will approach every media event or interview with a plan that you have created.

The spokesperson plays an important role in getting information about the organization and its product out to the public while you control the flow of that information. He or she works closely with brand managers and public relations professionals to craft statements and press releases, ensuring that information is relevant and timely.

At least that’s the theory.

But be careful because everything can abruptly turn south and cost you money as UEFA sponsor Coca-Cola learned during the European soccer championships in early June. The inadvertent culprit was Portuguese soccer superstar Cristiano Ronaldo, a well-known health enthusiast, who wasn’t even a spokesperson.

At a press conference during the tournament on June 14, Ronaldo visibly pushed two Coke bottles away from his spot at a table before taking questions in Budapest, ahead of a Group F game against Hungary. The Portuguese team captain then held up a bottle of water and touted it as the better alternative. “Beba agua!” he intoned in Portuguese. “Drink water!”

Coca-Cola’s market value sharply plunged by about $4 billion in what was deemed a dive that coincided with Ronaldo snubbing the Euro 2020 sponsor during a press conference at the tournament. Its stock price dipped by 1.6% almost immediately after the gesture, according to Business Insider and Reuters. That dropped its overall market value to $238 billion from $242 billion.

Ronaldo also boasts the most popular Instagram account on the planet, with more than 311 million followers and words count – especially celebrities’ words and gestures.

French star Paul Pogba also sparked an uproar by removing a bottle of Heineken, a tournament sponsor, from the table at another news conference the next day. Pogba is a practicing Muslim who does not drink alcohol. I couldn’t find a dollar figure for the snub.

Be careful who you choose as your spokesperson and make sure you precisely instruct him or her what can be done and said while under contract.

Foodservice

With small and large restaurateurs returning to their operations, they must be prepared for a wide range of possible situations from pricing, customer interest, health and safety. As a former editor of a publication for foodservice distributors, I know every well their value to their operator-customers. Consequently, if you have questions about the menu, products, pricing, etc., turn to your distributor sales rep or marketing association for guidance and answers.

One such national organization, Legacy Foodservice Alliance, Glen Allen, VA, has been on the forefront of helping operator-members via its StreetWise® since its launch in 2010.

Using hands-on events featuring mentoring, seminars, and interactive demonstrations, as well as online resources, StreetWise® offers sales associates learning channels to better their product knowledge and approaches to selling to their customers.

In 2021, StreetWise® expanded its ability to connect with salespeople by taking advantage of online platforms and other digital media. StreetWise® 365, as it was re-branded at the start of the year, is designed to engage with the sales associate in their environment all year long.

Deb Winter, Legacy Foodservice Alliance executive vice president, said, “Salespeople are on the street taking care of customers, solving problems, and battling the competition. They don’t always have total control of their schedule. When they do and can block out time, that’s great. But when they can’t, we need to have solutions for them to get information, education and details to allow them to maximize their opportunities.”

In addition to in-person events and information located on the group’s website, https://legacyfoodservicealliance.com/, StreetWise® 365 has created a series of online member meetings taking advantage of mobile technology for the on-the-go sales and marketing teams.

Have questions about your foodservice business, turn to your distributor or marketing group.

Trouble Ahead for Travel Business

Whether you’re planning to open fully your travel business or partially, it behooves you to plan for rough times.

As they say, in turbulent times, plan carefully for unavoidable disruptions and you may reach calm waters.

A United Nations report warns that international tourism could suffer similar losses in 2021 as last year.

The collapse of international tourism due to the COVID-19 pandemic could lead to a loss of more than $4 trillion in global GDP over the years 2020 and 2021, according to a report from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published at the end of June. The report was presented jointly with the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).

International tourism and the sectors that depend on it suffered an estimated loss of $2.4 trillion in 2020 due to the direct and indirect impacts of a sharp drop in international tourist arrivals.

A similar loss could be recorded this year again, warns the report, which specifies that the resumption of tourism will largely depend on the massive distribution of vaccines against COVID-19 on a global scale.

“The world needs a global vaccination effort that will protect workers, mitigate social damage and make strategic decisions about tourism, taking into account potential structural changes,” observed Isabelle Durant, acting secretary-general of UNCTAD.

As vaccination rates are uneven, with less than 1% of the population vaccinated in some countries and more than 60% elsewhere, the report notes that tourist losses are greater in developing countries.

Thus, three, more or less pessimistic scenarios were presented for the year 2021, the most optimistic evoking a reduction in tourist arrivals of only 63 percent on average.

According to the UNWTO, industry experts do not expect to return to usual crowds before 2023, or even later, the main obstacles being restrictions on travel, the slow containment of the virus, weak traveler confidence, and an unfavorable economic environment.

In uncertain times, even as some regions are dropping restrictions and allowing businesses to open fully, the road to recovery is bumpy. On the one hand, your creativity and market knowledge will help you survive. On the other hand, there are official sources of help for small businesses such as yours. In these circumstances, I recommend that you get in touch with the Small Business Administration and specifically in New Jersey the New Jersey Small Business Development Centers. Visit its website at https://njsbdc.com/ to find your regional center.

Even Small Businesses Need Help with Human Resources & Social Media

You’re never too small for growth and you’re never too small to launch initiatives to grow your business or to ask for help.

Two projects come to mind – human resources and social media. The former deals with your employees, considered by some your internal customers, and the latter pertains to your outreach, how your present your skills, goods and services to your external customers.

Human Resources

In today’s economy, small businesses have a great impact on America’s economic health and significantly contribute to the country’s gross domestic product. In 2016, 28.8 million small businesses’ contribution to the national economy stood at 99.7%. That same year, small businesses employed 56.8 million workers or 48% of all American employees.

Small business owners every day deal with a long to-do list of tasks and obligations, and they must wear many hats. As a result, small business owners are under painstaking pressure to find enough time in a day to rotate those hats and get their jobs done.

As practice has shown, very often small business owners put all their efforts into growing their businesses and revenues but they put little or no attention at all to have their human resources matters up to date and making sure that everything in their human resources area is in line with federal and local laws.

Frequently, many small business owners, after hiring the right person for the job, relegate human resources tasks to the bottom of their lists. All businesses have to have in place mechanisms for making all aspects of their companies work together successfully. Human resources management is one of the most vital areas of any business, even if the company has just one employee.

Human resources entail a lot more than just hiring the right people. HR engages many business segments – from people management to employee relations – and many points in between. Not paying attention to human resources could have the dire consequence and put the business and its owner at risk for legal consequences.

One of the common mistakes small business owners make is not thinking of the hiring process as a complex series of steps that are important for the company holistically and financially. The hiring process for small businesses should have the same components as hiring for a big company. It should start with recognizing hiring needs and then follow a clear job description.  A job description should include duties, responsibilities and other essential qualifications for the position.

Human resources management is probably one of the more complicated aspects of running a small business but it is vitally important to the existence of the business. Employees are one of a company’s greatest assets and it is absolutely fundamental to protect and manage those assets, according to regulations and set of laws.

Social Media

Social media have become the leading means for individual and group communications and networking, perhaps more than e-mail and traditional public relations. Of the major venues, such as Twitter, Facebook, Pinterest, Instagram, LinkedIn, etc., there are serious ones and frivolous ones, some favored by youth and others by adults and professionals. The best option, in my opinion, for businesses is a combination of Twitter, Facebook, the website, and traditional outreach venues like mail and press releases. I will discuss the important value of a blog later in this outline. The outcome of a well-planned and executed outreach campaign would be to establish the business and its management as thought leaders for customers, vendor-partners and other stakeholders.

A proactive outreach campaign won’t work without content. Consequently, in order for the company to be visible in cyberspace or the marketplace, it needs to create content, projects or ideas that could be promoted regularly. Regularity and frequency are fundamental principles of outreach and outreach. Content such as news, produces and services, ideas, observations, events, projects, goals and activities can then be disseminated by the social media.

Proactive outreach also can’t succeed without an audience. The organization must promote its social media and invite its members to participate via its regular mailed correspondence. Such an invitation with the appropriate logo can appear at the bottom of letters, statements, invoices and passbooks.

The institution’s management, with my assistance, would develop a series of events and other occasions that can be promoted and then re-promoted recurrently to promote the mission. Re-promoting and retweeting are important concepts because not all of your followers are on line at the same time so in order to reach as many people as possible, the content must be re-promoted, retweeted and re-posted several times a day with slight variations in the wording. This also teaches the audience to return regularly for more information. In that manner you build, cultivate and nurture of community that is interested in what you have to say.

The well-rounded outreach campaign includes Twitter, Facebook, website, blog, newsletters, etc.

Recent history has shown that serious and regular attention to social media have resulted in an increase in support and awareness about the mission, project or business. In other words, the small business can generate more leads and the nonprofit can attract more advocates. While social media may sound frivolous to some because of its prevalence among youth, it is a powerful marketing venue that must be used wisely by serious businesses and civic leaders. Infrequent or rare posts, tweets or updates after launching social media will confuse the cyber-audience and marketplace and cause unintended harm than intended good.

Frequency, regularity and consistency are keys to social media outreach success.

Visit our websites and contact us for guidance:

http://hrtiebreaker.com/

http://newhopepublishingllp.com/

We’re Tearing Asunder the Constitution

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

Sounded good in the summer of 1787 in the City of Brotherly Love.

Today, the people of the United States are akin to a nation of Cain and Abel. Some are debasing the once perfect Union, others are doubting the establishment of justice, injuring domestic tranquility … and you get the point.

The United States of America has become partitioned. The levels of polarization across the country can be counted in minute degrees, with opposing fanatics quickly and violently displaying their likes and dislikes as they take to task everyone who does not toe the prevailing line of thinking.

Right versus left, Democrat versus Republican, conservative versus liberal, black versus white, Christian versus Jew, to vaccinate or not to vaccinate. Imagine that after 234 years it has become dangerous to express an opinion in the United States that is a constitutionally guaranteed right, embodied in the Bill of Rights. You can’t speak it or you’ll be ostracized and you can’t listen to it or you’ll be censured.

Indeed, we can’t expect or want a unitary point of view for that would be equal to Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany, with their attendant punitive practices. However, the American house that we see today divided against itself surely cannot stand, confident of a secure future, as Abraham Lincoln observed.

Critical race theory and cancel culture have forced many to take a warped look at American literary and film classics such as “Gone with the Wind” while leaving unscathed “West Side Story.” Many Americans are reeling with guilt for being created in the wrong color or sex without any chance for repentance or clemency.

None of this bodes well for our collective future.

U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), accepting the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award, took aim at this unhealthy dichotomy by faulting those on both extremes of the nation’s political divide. “Many of us have been disappointed of late by the actions of some people who’ve chosen the easy way, playing to the crowd, itching the ears of the resentful with conspiracies and accusations,” he was quoted as saying at the virtual ceremony. “I take heart in the fact that such displays are still newsworthy and are generally met with disdain.”

The domestic political squabbles are having a real impact, Romney said, by diverting the nation’s attention away from three great challenges facing the country: the rise of China, global climate change and the “degradation of the national balance sheet.” I could add one or two more but these three are enough for now.

Romney said there’s plenty of blame to go around.

“Some of us on the right infect the nation with claims of election fraud, tech and media outrages, even vaccine fantasies. From the left come ‘hyperwoke’ accusations and antipathy toward free enterprise, the very means of our prosperity,” he added.

Indeed, we, Americans, are rightly or wrongly chomping at the bit for a good fight – and often times quite literally – without giving thought to whether we should. Intolerance has replaced tolerance.

And then there’s Alan Dershowitz, renowned former Harvard Law School professor and liberal defender of the downtrodden, who painfully admonished his fellow countrymen for creating a “very dangerous situation” with their diametrically opposing points of view.

“We’re in a very, very dangerous situation now where the left, which has enormous influence on American universities, has enormous influence on social media, has enormous influence on certain kinds of politics in the media, are trying to suppress free speech, and they’re succeeding, and we have to fight back,” Dershowitz was quoted as saying in an article in The Epoch Times.

Certainly the demands of some against others resemble ultimatums of the Gestapo or KGB. The obstacles placed on some experts, for example those who don’t accept the prevalent thinking on COVID-19, bring to mind societal control and messaging control of “1984.”

Dershowitz went on to say that big tech companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Google are today engaging in “massive censorship” that endangers the freedom of speech itself.

“That’s not good for the country, it’s not good for the Constitution, it’s not good for freedom of speech. It’s not good by any standards, and it has to stop. And we, the consumers, have to demand that Facebook and YouTube and Twitter stop this censorship,” he continued.

Harkening to Voltaire’s famous quote about freedom of speech, Dershowitz said, “What Donald Trump tweets—I may disagree with every single word he says—but he has the right to say it. And more importantly, people forget the First Amendment has two aspects, one, the right of the speaker—Donald Trump to speak—that’s one part of it.

“But the second part, which is largely ignored, is the right of you and me the public to hear and read and see what he has to say to accept it or reject it in the marketplace of ideas,” he added. “When you ban a speaker, you also ban his viewers and listeners from having access to that speech, and that’s an equally dangerous aspect of violating free speech rights.”

Yes, you deprive your neighbors of information that can be turned into knowledge, which then becomes actionable intelligence. Could that lead to the dumbing down of America?

In the heyday of the evil empire, as President Reagan called the USSR, Andrei Amalrik, the late Russian dissident wrote a scathing analysis of the future of the Soviet Union titled appropriately “Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984?” Today I wonder if the United States of America has the commitment and determination to rise above each person’s predilections and protect our perfect union.

Businesses Embark on Uncertain New World

Businesses small and large – indeed all of society – are finally, keenly opening their doors to a hopeful but uncertain new world. But the shift toward reopening is not without risk.

After a year and a half of living behind closed doors and suspending most commercial and interpersonal relations, businesses and humanity up and down the street are slowly being allowed and encouraged to return to a pre-pandemic existence.

However, bear in mind that what we are encountering today should not be mistaken for what we left behind. We are not turning back the dial on H.G. Wells’ time machine to a specific date before this global COVID-19 catastrophe began.

Small business owners, retailers, restaurateurs and others would do well to tread carefully. As you venture out physically and virtually, look up and down Main Street to see what’s happening. What are consumers, average men and women doing? Are they bravely walking around, entering stores and restaurants and making purchases? Are they wearing masks? Are they cautious and keeping their distance from others?

What are other businesses doing? How many of your commercial neighbors survived? Why didn’t they make it? Did they just give up? How many of them have reopened or will open? What do their interiors look like? Are they adequately stocked with products? Is the supply chain functioning effectively? What about their street perception – grungy or orderly? Certainly, your business neighborhood or marketplace doesn’t resemble Dresden during the war but how has it changed?

As you prepare to open and you must open or else you will fail, you must have a clear plan on how you’ll do that. The prevailing prerequisites for success require the wisdom of King Solomon and the administrative skills of a NASA official. Make a checklist of issues that pertain to your industry, customers, supply chain and establishment. Your preparations now will be more intense than they were when you were planning your launch because of the pandemic and its perceptible and imperceptible consequences.

You may not be able to test the business climate, but you should at least examine the statistics.

According to Charles Schwab, consumers are chomping at the bit. As vaccination rates increase in the country, so do people’s willingness to open their wallets. Nearly half (47%) of people polled by Charles Schwab are keen to live large, and get back to their spending levels before the COVID-19 pandemic. What’s more, almost a quarter (24%) say they want to splurge and make up for lost time, the survey, released this month, found.

However, in May consumer sentiment dropped sharply as inflation spiked and consumers prepared for higher interest rates that will defray the high cost of the government’s pandemic rescue plan. The preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment released earlier this month came in at 82.8, a drop of 6.2% from the month ago reading of 88.3. The current conditions and future expectations indices fell, by 6.6% and 6.2%, respectively.

“Rising inflation also meant that real income expectations were the weakest in five years,” said Chief Economist Richard Curtin. “The average of net price mentions for buying conditions for homes, vehicles, and household durables were more negative than any time since the end of the last inflationary era in 1980.”

Nonetheless, Curtin said he expects consumers will continue to spend because of pent-up demand and record saving balances even as precautionary moves ahead of rising prices for goods and services.

That’s the statistical outlook. Even if consumers are running to your door, you have to ensure that they stay, shop and buy once they’re inside. You may even have to explain to them why your prices have jumped.

Despite official guidance, small business owners are left to their own devices in figuring out how to administer new indoor mask guidance based upon a customer’s vaccination status. Some businesses say they will not ask customers if they’ve been vaccinated, and plan to operate on an honor system.

Other places say they plan to ask for proof of vaccination and then segregate unvaccinated people away from vaccinated people. Be careful because this may result in arguments, fisticuffs or even lawsuits.
Even as businesses allow masks to be removed, many customers say they will keep their masks on as a precaution while, as you see, many people still walk around outside and inside with masks.

The savvy business owner will compose a precise, visible set of rules for how patrons must behave in the establishment with a caveat about what will be done for transgressions. Yes, instead of minding your business, you’ll be the corner cop.

Once you’re convinced you’re open for business, walk through your store or restaurant by yourself or with a trusted person and just look around. Is everything in its right place? What are the elusive tells?

Recently, my family and I wanted to eat out but we couldn’t find a restaurant that looked and felt clean enough. The sensation didn’t pertain to actual spotlessness but rather to the business’ intangible impression. Along these same lines, supermarkets also have a shabby look.

Speaking of supermarkets, grocers should note that their sales may be on the verge of growth. The FMI, the food industry association, in its 2021 edition of U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, concluded that there are three significant ways in which shopper behavior changed during the pandemic. Today, 58% of shoppers report eating more at home and nearly half (49%) report cooking or preparing their own meals more than before the pandemic. When it comes to grocery shopping to support these at-home meals, shoppers have a newfound appreciation for the task, with 42% saying they like or love to grocery shop. You must confirm that you store has an inviting appearance.

“Throughout this past year, American grocery consumers have developed a deeper relationship with their kitchens, increased their healthy eating consciousness, and have learned new ways to shop,” said Leslie Sarasin, FMI’s president-CEO.  “We see shoppers engaging in more stock-up trips to support their at-home cooking, exercising new online shopping skills, and letting their personal concept of being well impact their food and shopping behaviors. Looking ahead, we expect many of these trends to continue.”

Grocers should also note that the Organic Trade Association (OTA) reported in its annual survey that U.S. organic sales soared to new highs in 2020, jumping by a record 12.4 percent to $61.9 billion. It marked the first time that total sales of organic food and non-food products have surpassed the $60 billion mark, and reflected a growth rate more than twice the 2019 pace of 5 percent. Fresh produce is the No.1 seller.

“The pandemic caused abrupt changes in all of our lives. We’ve been eating at home with our families, and often cooking three meals a day. Good, healthy food has never been more important, and consumers have increasingly sought out the Organic label. Organic purchases have skyrocketed as shoppers choose high-quality organic to feed and nourish their families,” said Laura Batcha, OTA's CEO-executive director.

Business owners are also facing a shortage of workers. Restaurant and stores are rapidly raising salaries in an urgent effort to attract more applicants and keep up with a flood of customers as the pandemic eases. McDonald’s, Sheetz and Chipotle are just some of the latest companies to follow Amazon, Walmart and Costco in boosting wages, in some cases to $15 an hour or higher, and offering other unheard of perks such as signing bonuses and retirement plans.

The pay gains are, of course, a boon to these employees. Restaurants, bars, hotels and stores remain the lowest-paying industries, and many of their workers ran the risk of contracting COVID-19 on the job over the past year while white-collar employees were able to work from home. Still, the pay increases could contribute to higher inflation if companies raise prices to cover the additional labor costs, as they’ve done. Some businesses, however, could absorb the costs or invest over time in automation to offset higher wages.

There may not be enough in the budget for marketing and advertising, but business owners should not be dismayed from promoting themselves because right now they are their own best billboards. Your customers and patrons will be impressed by your safe and sanitary look and tell others. Tell them how you achieved such a status. Customers will also spread the word if they don’t feel comfortable. Focus on social media promotions about what you’re doing and build online communities of like-minded entrepreneurs.

Be prepared to pay special attention to training your sales or wait staffs about the new post-pandemic requirements of conveying a feeling a cleanliness and safety.

If you have the capacity, you should examine your online presence because the pandemic has shown that e-commerce enjoyed heavy investment that resulted in historic growth. For example, Ikea, which is best known for its airline hangar-like big box stores, reported a 45% increase in online sales over the 12 months to August. Changing consumer spending habits as a result of the coronavirus pandemic contributed to the spike in ecommerce sales last year, as statewide lockdowns and fear of contracting the virus kept consumers out of physical stores. COVID-19-related boosts in online shopping resulted in an additional $174.87 billion in ecommerce revenue in 2020, Digital Commerce 360 estimates. If it weren’t for the bump in online sales from the pandemic, the $861.12 billion in ecommerce sales wouldn’t have been reached until 2022.

If you don’t, your competitor will do so.

As you prepare to unlock and emerge from the chaos of the pandemic, don’t forget that you’re not alone. There are other businesses and official institutions that you can access for free advice such as the Small Business Administration, the New Jersey Small Business Development Centers, SCORE and others. An important factor in finding your new normal is based on your old and new relationships. For example, restaurateurs, can tap into their back of the house and dining room teams, vendors and foodservice distributors, and ask the question how can we help each other? Supply chain partners that have a broader view should not be overlooked in this quest.

The more you think, plan and share ahead of unlocking your business, the sooner you’ll convert the uncertain new world into a brave and successful one.

PepsiCo, Frito-Lay, 2 Others Boost 3 SDGs Pertaining to Women and Inequality

PepsiCo and Plano-based Frito Lay are feeling the pain of women who have lost their jobs due to COVID-19.

It is estimated that millions of women have been forced to stay at home due to the pandemic.

PepsiCo and its Plano-based subsidiary Frito Lay have partnered with a number of Dallas nonprofits including CitySquare to eliminate social barriers and help southern Dallas women get back to work, reported The Dallas Morning News.

Despite generous hopes and plans, Fortune noted that “Recent projections based on economic scenarios modeled by McKinsey and Oxford Economics estimate that employment for women may not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2024—two full years after a recovery for men.”

There is a real danger that female labor force participation could face its steepest sustained decline since World War II. Female workforce participation has already dropped to 57%—the lowest level since 1988, according to the National Women’s Law Center.

Fortune reported that the statistics show a harsher journey for women both during and through the recovery of the pandemic. McKinsey said as unemployment numbers were roughly equal between men and women in February 2020, unemployment for women peaked at 15.8% in April 2020, more than 2 percentage points above that for men. In September, when schools resumed, many of them with remote learning, 80% of the 1.1 million people who exited the workforce were women. In December, women accounted for all of the net job losses, while men achieved some job gains. Today, unemployment for women remains 1.9 percentage points above the pre-pandemic level.

Since the onset of the pandemic, 400,000 more women than men have left the workforce. The same is true for women of color; for example, Hispanic women face an unemployment rate of 6.5%, more than double that of Hispanic men.

“If these trends are left unaddressed, they will exacerbate existing inequalities and reverse decades of progress toward an inclusive economy for women and people of color,” Fortune observed.

In Dallas, the new coalition backed by PepsiCo and Frito-Lay hopes to reverse the pandemic’s unequal impact on working moms and put hundreds back into the workforce over the next three years.

PepsiCo and its Plano-based subsidiary Frito-Lay are partnering with nonprofits United Way of Metropolitan Dallas and CitySquare and Dallas College to train women in the skills necessary for jobs in hospitality, sales, marketing, manufacturing and logistics. They’ll also provide social services like housing assistance and child care.

The Dallas Morning News reported the program aims to train as many as 550 women in southern Dallas as part of the Southern Dallas Thrives initiative first announced in 2018. Dallas College will provide the education, CitySquare will provide social services and professional skills training and the PepsiCo Foundation contributed a $750,000 grant.

“More than a quarter of our 6,500 employees in Dallas-Fort Worth live in southern Dallas,” PepsiCo director of government affairs Rebecca Acuna was quoted as saying. “We see this investment as an investment in our community. We’ve also seen that when women thrive, families thrive. And when families thrive it means that North Texas succeeds.”

“We’re going to need to mobilize to get them back to work and ensure they have the social support necessary to work, and to reverse the devastating effects to their income that has been caused by this pandemic,” CitySquare CEO John Siburt said.

This benevolent effort by the business community is tied into three Sustainable Development Goals: #5—Gender Equality; #8—Decent Work and Economic Growth; and #10—Reduced Inequality.

If your business is open or on the verge of reopening, there’s an opportunity for you. Mainstream businesses of all sized as well as women-owned companies can get involved in this project of local levels. Collectively helping women in this dire situation – by outright hiring, training, social assistance with children – will result in many individual benefits.

You should also promote your companies locally through government officials and the media by pointing out that you are on the forefront of supporting the Sustainable Development Goals.

By the way, diversity and inclusion don’t happen by accident. It’s very deliberate. Monthly commemorations are opportunities to get topics in front of your customers, marketplace and audience. However, sustaining that level of engagement throughout the year is a matter of management’s commitment.

Nonprofits Offer Students Valuable Experience as Interns

Indeed, times are tough and Main Street businesses as well as corporate ones are feeling the pain of pandemic-related doldrums.

In the past, among other things, they served as a wellspring of exciting and worthwhile experiences for college students through internships. Today that source has been reduced to a trickle.

However, there is another segment of the business community that exists on a different plane that can also benefit students – nonprofits.

Essentially, these institutions – sometimes also called community groups, humanitarian or religious organizations, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) – are businesses though their missions are different. They don’t exist to make a buck but rather to make a difference in society. However, in order to be successful in what they do, they must not only be driven by their missions but they must also pay attention to their bottom lines, cash flow, sponsorships and donations.

Nonprofits are the backbone of democratic societies and we, in the United States, are fortunate to have a myriad of civic-based organizations that make sure that our collective eye is also kept on higher goals. Incidentally, these groups, or NGOs, are held in high regard by the United Nations, which has designated them as the fourth leg in its administrative “stool.” I recall when I was a staff member of the UN Department of Public Information / Non-Governmental Organizations section there were scores of student-interns of large and small humanitarian and community groups plying the hallways of its New York headquarters, fulfilling tasks for their employers.

Consequently, students should not overlook nonprofits when applying for internships.

The February 28 edition of the New York Post wrote about the myriad internships and other advantages offered for students by NGOs. One of the youths written about was a business student at Ramapo College of New Jersey, which hosts the New Jersey Small Business Development Center (NJSBDC), headed by Regional Director Vincent J. Vicari. As an educational institution, it is a nonprofit. If you haven’t come across this institution in your entrepreneurial careers, this center and others like it across New Jersey and the United States are the preeminent sources of free, hands-on help for small business owners. For students, they also offer valuable internships.

Jakub Zak, 19, of Wallington, NJ, a finance student as Ramapo, devoted 10 weeks to a remote internship with the NJSBDC office in northern Bergen County. Zak reviewed financials, budgeting and forecasting, working closely with the NJSBDC business consultant.

“Every time I made a business plan for a client, I was able to develop my analytical skills,” Zak was quoted as saying by the New York Post. “When I first entered college, I wouldn’t envision doing all of my work on a computer. I always envisioned shaking hands. It’s been a success, because of the people I work with, they’re class acts, open to communications. We can call, text, e-mail — there’s a nice bond.”

Zak sustained his internship throughout the school year, while maintaining a 3.88 GPA, and will continue throughout the summer. The educational, business and professional experiences are awesome with the NJSBDC at Ramapo because of the wide range of real businesses that are counseled by Vicari and his team.

“I have good grades to feel a sense of accomplishment, but [this] sense of accomplishment is different because you actually help a business. You see the open sign on the door — you’re authentically helping someone,” said Zak.

Regardless of the business climate on Main Street, life goes on and so do commerce and trade. In tough times they must be helped so they can reach safe waters. Vicari said, “Business doesn’t stop. In order to jump on that moving train, students are perfectly poised to be passengers, and they’ve jumped on with a vengeance. I’m so proud of what these students have achieved.”

Last summer, 24 interns worked for the center, and Vicari anticipates expanding the program this summer. Positions will post on the career management platform Handshake in May. “There’s no shortage of clients,” said Vicari. “There’s an opportunity to coordinate public services to help our economy recover.”

The NJSBDC at Ramapo College offers double-edged services to the Garden State’s economy. On the one side, there are the obvious small businesses, startups and entrepreneurs that need advice, guidance and help in launching their commercial projects in any economic climate. Their need is greater today due to the unexpected calamity caused by COVID-19 and Vicari is prepared to step up to the plate and help them overcome difficulties. He is known in the business community for his hands-on approach to solving his clients’ difficulties. In order for small businesses to hurdle over today’s crisis, he helps locate government funding sources, walks them through the application process, and finally even helps them hang the “Open for Business” sign on their doors.

On the other edge is the Ramapo center’s help for students – tomorrow’s entrepreneurs and business owners. With Vicari and Ramapo they get a useful taste of what they can expect on Main Street. Undeniably a win-win scenario for New Jersey.

Vicari was recognized for his dedicated service with the prestigious ICON award by NJBIZ. Ed Petkus, dean of Ramapo College’s Anisfield School of Business, had said, “This recognition is extremely well-deserved. Vince has been working tirelessly during the pandemic, assisting small businesses in their efforts to weather the crisis.”

Vicari’s service was also acknowledged with appropriate proclamations by State lawmakers.

Vicari is known for his business acumen, and exemplary, strong and dedicated efforts in assisting small business owners and entrepreneurs. He has helped restaurants, machine fabricators, dog training schools, and other businesses succeed. Regardless of temporary financial troubles or the aftermath of natural calamities or today’s misfortunes, he provides quality, hands-on support for business clients, delivers specialized assistance to them, and ultimately leads small business owners to the path of profitability. His door is never closed to any businessman and woman who needs his help, guidance and advice. Visit him at his website https://www.sbdcbergen.com/.

 

 

COVID-19 Is Still Present but Business Hopes are Vying for Growth

You may not believe it, but there is hope for business growth in 2021.

The United Nations, for one, is projecting stronger growth than expected this year as businesses in the United States are jockeying for better bottom lines and more openings rather than closings.

The global economy is expected to grow by 4.7% this year, faster than predicted in September (4.3%), thanks in part to a stronger recovery in the United States, where progress in distributing vaccines and a fresh fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion are expected to boost consumer spending, says a new report by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). 

Not to be overly pessimistic but rather realistic, the UN agency that deals with trade, investment and development issues, pointed out that this growth rate will nonetheless leave the global economy over $10 trillion short of where it could have been by the end of 2021 if it had stayed on the pre-pandemic trend and with persistent worries about the reality behind the rhetoric of a more resilient future.

The report issued March 18 cautioned that what the global economy doesn’t need right now is “A misguided return to austerity after a deep and destructive recession.” This is the main risk to its global outlook, UNCTAD said.

The report said outdated economic dogmas, weak multilateral cooperation and a widespread reluctance to tackle the problems of inequality, indebtedness and insufficient investment – all worsening thanks to COVID-19. It suggests that, without a change of course, the new normal for many will be an unbalanced recovery, vulnerability to further shocks and persistent economic insecurity.

The global recovery that began in the third quarter of 2020 is expected to continue through 2021, albeit with a good deal of unevenness and unpredictability, reflecting epidemiological, policy and coordination uncertainties.

But even barring an immediate return of austerity, the report noted, it will take more than one year for output and employment to return to their pre-COVID-19 levels in most countries with employment, income inequality and public welfare over the medium term depending on the evolution of policy responses. However, the report warned that COVID-19, which claimed 2.7 million lives around the world and afflicted 124.6 million, will likely have lasting economic, as well as health consequences, which will require continued government support.

The $1.9 trillion stimulus package in the U.S. is grounds for encouragement, the United Nations said. However, while the package contains large cash transfers, there is much less direct spending on consumption and investment, which would offer the safest route to aggregate demand expansion and a green transition. This makes the full effect of the package uncertain.

More troubling, according to the report, is that other advanced countries are lagging far behind. There are also signs that the new U.S. administration is extending its efforts to the multilateral level, endorsing a $500 billion issuance of new special drawing rights to support global liquidity at the upcoming G20 meeting, previously blocked by the Trump administration.

This is a welcome move but, according to UNCTAD, the scale of the debt threat, particularly for developing countries, cannot be reduced without debt forgiveness and the adoption of a functioning debt workout mechanism.

How does this play on Main Street, USA? According to CNBC, for the first time in years, retailers across the country are planning to open more stores than they are closing. Are these two forecasts connected? Don’t know but they sound good as they’ve been issued at the same time.

The network reported that retailers such as Ulta Beauty, Sephora, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Five Below and TJ Maxx are rebounding from the pandemic and looking to expand. Many businesses also see an opportunity to sign shorter leases, which can allow them to experiment with different formats.

Year to date, retailers in the US have announced 3,199 store openings and 2,548 closures, according to a tracking by Coresight Research.

Even iconic Toys R Us, the toy chain that filed for bankruptcy in 2017 and ultimately liquidated, has a new owner that is looking to open stores ahead of the 2021 holidays. Nothing like retail excitement on the street spurs consumer enthusiasm to buy.

CNBC also reported that many of the companies that have planned for openings this year are focused on value. They range from Dollar General and Dollar Tree to off-price retailers Burlington and Ross Stores and the discount grocers Aldi and Lidl. However, specialty retailers are in the mix, including L Brands’ Bath & Body Works and Gap’s Old Navy. In other words, shell-shocked consumers aren’t ready to shop at upscale stores but discounters have their attention.

Burlington Stores, for one, is planning 75 net new stores for this year. The off-price retailer’s plans include opening about 100 new locations, while closing or relocating 25.

It seems that country is turning a corner at least with business attitudes. Consumers may not be ready to swarm back but they can be coaxed back to your store. The rollout of the COVID vaccine keeps ramping up, stimulus checks are landing in many Americans’ bank accounts, and companies are by and large predicting a strong rebound of the consumer. The National Retail Federation is forecasting retail sales in the US could grow anywhere between 6.5% and 8.2% this year, with the economy accelerating at its fastest clip in two decades.

All told, after the pandemic turned many American Main Streets into scenes of post-war devastation, this is encouraging news but nonetheless be careful as you hang the “Open” sign on your door. Share your ideas for opening with your neighborhood and marketplace as well as your trading partners. Share good ideas and best practices. As they say, a rising tide lifts all boats.

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