Saturday, May 29, 2021

We’re Tearing Asunder the Constitution

“We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.”

Sounded good in the summer of 1787 in the City of Brotherly Love.

Today, the people of the United States are akin to a nation of Cain and Abel. Some are debasing the once perfect Union, others are doubting the establishment of justice, injuring domestic tranquility … and you get the point.

The United States of America has become partitioned. The levels of polarization across the country can be counted in minute degrees, with opposing fanatics quickly and violently displaying their likes and dislikes as they take to task everyone who does not toe the prevailing line of thinking.

Right versus left, Democrat versus Republican, conservative versus liberal, black versus white, Christian versus Jew, to vaccinate or not to vaccinate. Imagine that after 234 years it has become dangerous to express an opinion in the United States that is a constitutionally guaranteed right, embodied in the Bill of Rights. You can’t speak it or you’ll be ostracized and you can’t listen to it or you’ll be censured.

Indeed, we can’t expect or want a unitary point of view for that would be equal to Soviet Russia or Nazi Germany, with their attendant punitive practices. However, the American house that we see today divided against itself surely cannot stand, confident of a secure future, as Abraham Lincoln observed.

Critical race theory and cancel culture have forced many to take a warped look at American literary and film classics such as “Gone with the Wind” while leaving unscathed “West Side Story.” Many Americans are reeling with guilt for being created in the wrong color or sex without any chance for repentance or clemency.

None of this bodes well for our collective future.

U.S. Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), accepting the John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Award, took aim at this unhealthy dichotomy by faulting those on both extremes of the nation’s political divide. “Many of us have been disappointed of late by the actions of some people who’ve chosen the easy way, playing to the crowd, itching the ears of the resentful with conspiracies and accusations,” he was quoted as saying at the virtual ceremony. “I take heart in the fact that such displays are still newsworthy and are generally met with disdain.”

The domestic political squabbles are having a real impact, Romney said, by diverting the nation’s attention away from three great challenges facing the country: the rise of China, global climate change and the “degradation of the national balance sheet.” I could add one or two more but these three are enough for now.

Romney said there’s plenty of blame to go around.

“Some of us on the right infect the nation with claims of election fraud, tech and media outrages, even vaccine fantasies. From the left come ‘hyperwoke’ accusations and antipathy toward free enterprise, the very means of our prosperity,” he added.

Indeed, we, Americans, are rightly or wrongly chomping at the bit for a good fight – and often times quite literally – without giving thought to whether we should. Intolerance has replaced tolerance.

And then there’s Alan Dershowitz, renowned former Harvard Law School professor and liberal defender of the downtrodden, who painfully admonished his fellow countrymen for creating a “very dangerous situation” with their diametrically opposing points of view.

“We’re in a very, very dangerous situation now where the left, which has enormous influence on American universities, has enormous influence on social media, has enormous influence on certain kinds of politics in the media, are trying to suppress free speech, and they’re succeeding, and we have to fight back,” Dershowitz was quoted as saying in an article in The Epoch Times.

Certainly the demands of some against others resemble ultimatums of the Gestapo or KGB. The obstacles placed on some experts, for example those who don’t accept the prevalent thinking on COVID-19, bring to mind societal control and messaging control of “1984.”

Dershowitz went on to say that big tech companies such as Facebook, Twitter and Google are today engaging in “massive censorship” that endangers the freedom of speech itself.

“That’s not good for the country, it’s not good for the Constitution, it’s not good for freedom of speech. It’s not good by any standards, and it has to stop. And we, the consumers, have to demand that Facebook and YouTube and Twitter stop this censorship,” he continued.

Harkening to Voltaire’s famous quote about freedom of speech, Dershowitz said, “What Donald Trump tweets—I may disagree with every single word he says—but he has the right to say it. And more importantly, people forget the First Amendment has two aspects, one, the right of the speaker—Donald Trump to speak—that’s one part of it.

“But the second part, which is largely ignored, is the right of you and me the public to hear and read and see what he has to say to accept it or reject it in the marketplace of ideas,” he added. “When you ban a speaker, you also ban his viewers and listeners from having access to that speech, and that’s an equally dangerous aspect of violating free speech rights.”

Yes, you deprive your neighbors of information that can be turned into knowledge, which then becomes actionable intelligence. Could that lead to the dumbing down of America?

In the heyday of the evil empire, as President Reagan called the USSR, Andrei Amalrik, the late Russian dissident wrote a scathing analysis of the future of the Soviet Union titled appropriately “Will the Soviet Union Survive until 1984?” Today I wonder if the United States of America has the commitment and determination to rise above each person’s predilections and protect our perfect union.

Wednesday, May 26, 2021

Businesses Embark on Uncertain New World

Businesses small and large – indeed all of society – are finally, keenly opening their doors to a hopeful but uncertain new world. But the shift toward reopening is not without risk.

After a year and a half of living behind closed doors and suspending most commercial and interpersonal relations, businesses and humanity up and down the street are slowly being allowed and encouraged to return to a pre-pandemic existence.

However, bear in mind that what we are encountering today should not be mistaken for what we left behind. We are not turning back the dial on H.G. Wells’ time machine to a specific date before this global COVID-19 catastrophe began.

Small business owners, retailers, restaurateurs and others would do well to tread carefully. As you venture out physically and virtually, look up and down Main Street to see what’s happening. What are consumers, average men and women doing? Are they bravely walking around, entering stores and restaurants and making purchases? Are they wearing masks? Are they cautious and keeping their distance from others?

What are other businesses doing? How many of your commercial neighbors survived? Why didn’t they make it? Did they just give up? How many of them have reopened or will open? What do their interiors look like? Are they adequately stocked with products? Is the supply chain functioning effectively? What about their street perception – grungy or orderly? Certainly, your business neighborhood or marketplace doesn’t resemble Dresden during the war but how has it changed?

As you prepare to open and you must open or else you will fail, you must have a clear plan on how you’ll do that. The prevailing prerequisites for success require the wisdom of King Solomon and the administrative skills of a NASA official. Make a checklist of issues that pertain to your industry, customers, supply chain and establishment. Your preparations now will be more intense than they were when you were planning your launch because of the pandemic and its perceptible and imperceptible consequences.

You may not be able to test the business climate, but you should at least examine the statistics.

According to Charles Schwab, consumers are chomping at the bit. As vaccination rates increase in the country, so do people’s willingness to open their wallets. Nearly half (47%) of people polled by Charles Schwab are keen to live large, and get back to their spending levels before the COVID-19 pandemic. What’s more, almost a quarter (24%) say they want to splurge and make up for lost time, the survey, released this month, found.

However, in May consumer sentiment dropped sharply as inflation spiked and consumers prepared for higher interest rates that will defray the high cost of the government’s pandemic rescue plan. The preliminary estimate of the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment released earlier this month came in at 82.8, a drop of 6.2% from the month ago reading of 88.3. The current conditions and future expectations indices fell, by 6.6% and 6.2%, respectively.

“Rising inflation also meant that real income expectations were the weakest in five years,” said Chief Economist Richard Curtin. “The average of net price mentions for buying conditions for homes, vehicles, and household durables were more negative than any time since the end of the last inflationary era in 1980.”

Nonetheless, Curtin said he expects consumers will continue to spend because of pent-up demand and record saving balances even as precautionary moves ahead of rising prices for goods and services.

That’s the statistical outlook. Even if consumers are running to your door, you have to ensure that they stay, shop and buy once they’re inside. You may even have to explain to them why your prices have jumped.

Despite official guidance, small business owners are left to their own devices in figuring out how to administer new indoor mask guidance based upon a customer’s vaccination status. Some businesses say they will not ask customers if they’ve been vaccinated, and plan to operate on an honor system.

Other places say they plan to ask for proof of vaccination and then segregate unvaccinated people away from vaccinated people. Be careful because this may result in arguments, fisticuffs or even lawsuits.
Even as businesses allow masks to be removed, many customers say they will keep their masks on as a precaution while, as you see, many people still walk around outside and inside with masks.

The savvy business owner will compose a precise, visible set of rules for how patrons must behave in the establishment with a caveat about what will be done for transgressions. Yes, instead of minding your business, you’ll be the corner cop.

Once you’re convinced you’re open for business, walk through your store or restaurant by yourself or with a trusted person and just look around. Is everything in its right place? What are the elusive tells?

Recently, my family and I wanted to eat out but we couldn’t find a restaurant that looked and felt clean enough. The sensation didn’t pertain to actual spotlessness but rather to the business’ intangible impression. Along these same lines, supermarkets also have a shabby look.

Speaking of supermarkets, grocers should note that their sales may be on the verge of growth. The FMI, the food industry association, in its 2021 edition of U.S. Grocery Shopper Trends, concluded that there are three significant ways in which shopper behavior changed during the pandemic. Today, 58% of shoppers report eating more at home and nearly half (49%) report cooking or preparing their own meals more than before the pandemic. When it comes to grocery shopping to support these at-home meals, shoppers have a newfound appreciation for the task, with 42% saying they like or love to grocery shop. You must confirm that you store has an inviting appearance.

“Throughout this past year, American grocery consumers have developed a deeper relationship with their kitchens, increased their healthy eating consciousness, and have learned new ways to shop,” said Leslie Sarasin, FMI’s president-CEO.  “We see shoppers engaging in more stock-up trips to support their at-home cooking, exercising new online shopping skills, and letting their personal concept of being well impact their food and shopping behaviors. Looking ahead, we expect many of these trends to continue.”

Grocers should also note that the Organic Trade Association (OTA) reported in its annual survey that U.S. organic sales soared to new highs in 2020, jumping by a record 12.4 percent to $61.9 billion. It marked the first time that total sales of organic food and non-food products have surpassed the $60 billion mark, and reflected a growth rate more than twice the 2019 pace of 5 percent. Fresh produce is the No.1 seller.

“The pandemic caused abrupt changes in all of our lives. We’ve been eating at home with our families, and often cooking three meals a day. Good, healthy food has never been more important, and consumers have increasingly sought out the Organic label. Organic purchases have skyrocketed as shoppers choose high-quality organic to feed and nourish their families,” said Laura Batcha, OTA's CEO-executive director.

Business owners are also facing a shortage of workers. Restaurant and stores are rapidly raising salaries in an urgent effort to attract more applicants and keep up with a flood of customers as the pandemic eases. McDonald’s, Sheetz and Chipotle are just some of the latest companies to follow Amazon, Walmart and Costco in boosting wages, in some cases to $15 an hour or higher, and offering other unheard of perks such as signing bonuses and retirement plans.

The pay gains are, of course, a boon to these employees. Restaurants, bars, hotels and stores remain the lowest-paying industries, and many of their workers ran the risk of contracting COVID-19 on the job over the past year while white-collar employees were able to work from home. Still, the pay increases could contribute to higher inflation if companies raise prices to cover the additional labor costs, as they’ve done. Some businesses, however, could absorb the costs or invest over time in automation to offset higher wages.

There may not be enough in the budget for marketing and advertising, but business owners should not be dismayed from promoting themselves because right now they are their own best billboards. Your customers and patrons will be impressed by your safe and sanitary look and tell others. Tell them how you achieved such a status. Customers will also spread the word if they don’t feel comfortable. Focus on social media promotions about what you’re doing and build online communities of like-minded entrepreneurs.

Be prepared to pay special attention to training your sales or wait staffs about the new post-pandemic requirements of conveying a feeling a cleanliness and safety.

If you have the capacity, you should examine your online presence because the pandemic has shown that e-commerce enjoyed heavy investment that resulted in historic growth. For example, Ikea, which is best known for its airline hangar-like big box stores, reported a 45% increase in online sales over the 12 months to August. Changing consumer spending habits as a result of the coronavirus pandemic contributed to the spike in ecommerce sales last year, as statewide lockdowns and fear of contracting the virus kept consumers out of physical stores. COVID-19-related boosts in online shopping resulted in an additional $174.87 billion in ecommerce revenue in 2020, Digital Commerce 360 estimates. If it weren’t for the bump in online sales from the pandemic, the $861.12 billion in ecommerce sales wouldn’t have been reached until 2022.

If you don’t, your competitor will do so.

As you prepare to unlock and emerge from the chaos of the pandemic, don’t forget that you’re not alone. There are other businesses and official institutions that you can access for free advice such as the Small Business Administration, the New Jersey Small Business Development Centers, SCORE and others. An important factor in finding your new normal is based on your old and new relationships. For example, restaurateurs, can tap into their back of the house and dining room teams, vendors and foodservice distributors, and ask the question how can we help each other? Supply chain partners that have a broader view should not be overlooked in this quest.

The more you think, plan and share ahead of unlocking your business, the sooner you’ll convert the uncertain new world into a brave and successful one.