Thursday, June 18, 2020


The Business Landscape has Changed
If you were to wake up years in the future like Woody Allen in the 1973 comedy “Sleeper,” you’d be surprised by what has changed in your life. Normality and almost everything that you have known to be true.
That in a broad brushstroke summarizes expectations of what business, interpersonal relations, recreation, education, sports and other activities will look like after the coronavirus pandemic dissipates.
Yesterday, on Good Morning America, New York’s Gov. Andrew Cuomo opined when asked about schooling in September that he doesn’t know if schools will be open or not. Furthermore, he said, if someone offers a reply in any direction, don’t believe it. That means that no one, regardless of how educated or experienced they are, really knows what to expect in the near or distant future. SWAG is the name of the game.
So what should we do? What should business owners and entrepreneurs do to survive – not to mention thrive – until better times?
Basically, read as much as you can, listen to as many experts as you can, consult with as many smart people that you can, follow the rules and regulations, and then plan your steps to recovery meticulously, skillfully and effectively.
The road to recovery, relaunch or reopening of your business is a minefield with all sorts of obstacles not the least of which is the continuing prevalence of the disease itself. This fact alone has transformed people’s mentalities and made their manners unpredictable.
While coronavirus is being contained on one side of the country, it is spreading or spiking in other parts. It may be under control in one neighborhood of your marketplace while spreading on the other side of town.
As of this writing, the US death toll from the coronavirus illness is approaching 120,000, amid reports that nine states are recording either single-day record numbers of cases or their highest seven-day new case averages, indicating they are not managing to contain the spread. Some experts foresee between 130,000 and 140,000 deaths by the Fourth of July. Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina and Texas are seeing infections climb, according to a Washington Post analysis. The COVID-19 pandemic has killed some 445,000 globally already.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute for Allergies and Infectious Diseases, said the current talk of a second wave of infections is irrelevant because the country is still dealing with the first wave. “We are seeing infections to a greater degree than they had previously seen in certain states, including states in the southwest and in the south,” Fauci said. “I don’t like to talk about a second wave right now, because we haven’t gotten out of our first wave.”

Nostradamus Arises
But Nostradamus predictions by reputable experts of a deadlier second wave in the fall are visible throughout the Internet, poisoning consumers’ behavior. Peering farther into the future, some analysts say there is at least a one-in-three chance that at least one of four major tail risks will occur within the next decade with major power outages as electrical power grids are disrupted: a major influenza pandemic killing more than 2 million people; a globally catastrophic volcanic eruption; a major solar flare; or a global war. Adjust the time frame to two decades, then there is a 56% chance of one of these disasters occurring, the analysts say, based on various studies and risk assessments.
After weeks at home, a stagnant economy, rising unemployment, padlocked businesses, schools and places of entertainment, and fear, the country is reawakening. Sadly, Americans aren’t cooperating with experts’ advice and frantically escaping their corrals, contributing to spikes and record numbers of hospitalizations as thousands more Americans get infected every day.
“We’re going to have to face the harsh reality in some states that we may need to shut down again,” Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a professor at George Washington University School of Medicine, was quoted as saying.
“Because of quarantine fatigue, because of the economic effects of quarantine, another round of shutdowns might have even larger effects on businesses that may be on the edge of not being able to stay solvent," warned Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington.
Experts offer three suggestions on curbing the spread of coronavirus: social distancing, masks and washing hands. Based on limited compliance with the first two it could then be safe to say that handwashing is also being belittled.
Gallup reported that about 67% of women said they had worn a mask outside their homes, compared with 56% of men, which was based on a random sample of 2,451 adults in the United States and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points. President Trump notoriously falls into the category of abstainers. Without delving into partisan affiliations, the survey found that people who live in a county that has recorded at least one coronavirus-related death are more likely to wear masks than people who live in counties that have recorded no deaths from the virus, according to the Gallup poll. Those who decline to wear masks say donning them is a sign of weakness or an infringement on their freedom of choice.
In New York City, some 80% of residents while nearly 79% of Los Angeles residents said they always wear masks in public, according to a nationally representative survey published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, outside of the two cities, 60% of Americans responded that they always wear masks in public.
Americans’ anarchistic and anti-science thinking will not benefit their communities, businesses and the world in the long run.

Feelings of Good Times Evaporate
Ironically, leading up to the pandemic catastrophe, small businesses had been optimistic about their prospects in 2020. Sales projections looked good. Then the bottom fell away. According to Princeton Economics, this spring surveyed small business owners were already severely impacted by COVID-19-related disruptions: 60% had already laid off at least one worker. Business owners’ expectations about the future were negative and deteriorated over time, with 37% of respondents in the first week reporting that they did not expect to recover within two years. That number grew to 46% by April 19. The proportion reporting that they didn’t expect to ever recover decreased by 0.4 percentage points per day, with only half of respondents believing their business would never recover within two years by the final week of the survey.
A recent study for the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research showed the number of active business owners in the United States had plunged by 3.3 million or 22% from February to April when the coronavirus shut down the economy, the steepest decline on record.
There is no question we are entering a deep and sharp recession, unfamiliar to economists as the virus is unfamiliar to the medical profession. Forecasters keep revising their predictions downward, with some now seeing an up to 40% drop in second quarter GDP.
Projected damage varies by industry. Overall, 38% of the small firms think they would still be open after a six-month crisis, but that drops to 27% for tourism and lodging firms, and only a 15% survival rate for restaurants.  And, as the authors note, entrepreneurs are notoriously optimistic, so “true survival rates may be even lower.” 
From a macroeconomic standpoint, the swiftness of closings is the biggest problem. Normally, around a third of small firms with employees fail in their first two years, and only about 50% survive for five years. But the pandemic crisis is compressing these closures into a very short time, which in turn drives down overall economic demand, in a negative spiral.
The economic toll from the first round of shutdowns has been staggering. More than 44 million people in the United States have filed for initial unemployment benefits since mid-March. The prognosis for a quick and painless recovery is not great. Many large and small businesses have already closed their doors while others face this unfortunate demise in the future. Everyone is loving their nerves.
According to the Small Business Administration (SBA), a small business is any firm with 1–499 employees. Under this definition, small businesses make up 47.3% of all private-sector employees but a whopping 61% of new jobs. So even a minor disruption in small businesses could affect a large portion of employees and the economy, especially during attempts at recovery. Seven and a half million small businesses will shut permanently if business disruption caused by COVID-19 continues unabated, according to a new survey from Main Street America. 
That sounds the death knell for a vital segment of America that is dependent on regular economic prosperity.

Reopening Steps in New Jersey
Unable to keep small business owners closed, governors are allowing them to open gradually their doors and begin servicing customers. For example, New Jersey’s Gov. Phil Murphy order provided clarification on how other businesses in the state may function, stating that:
Restaurants and indoor recreational and entertainment businesses are permitted to allow individuals to tour their facilities for event-planning purposes, but such individuals must wear face coverings at all times and the facility may not provide food or drink tastings or samplings;
Students, who may be accompanied by parents or guardians, may enter school premises to retrieve personal belongings from lockers, classrooms, or other areas;
Open houses to view real estate are permitted, provided they comply with the restrictions on indoor gatherings, including the requirement that attendees wear face coverings;
Bicycle shops, boat dealerships, car and used car dealerships, farming equipment stores, federal firearms licensees, livestock feed stores, mobile phone retail and repair shops, motorcycle dealerships, and nurseries and garden centers can operate according to the requirements placed on essential retail businesses;
All car washes can operate according to the requirements placed on essential retail businesses;
Yard and garage sales are permitted subject to the requirements on indoor gatherings, but municipalities shall have the discretion to impose additional restrictions on these sales;
Special events, including fireworks displays, at public and private beaches, boardwalks, lakes, and lakeshores are permitted, subject to the restrictions on outdoor gatherings; and
Shared space tutoring service facilities remain closed to students and clients.
These are more or less comparable across the country.
You may be chomping at the bit to open your business after weeks of being closed down, but it’s important to do so carefully. Budget for the new expenses you might face, assess your staffing needs, and continue adapting to these turbulent times so your business can survive the pandemic, and perhaps even thrive during it.

Erratic Consumer Behavior
Consumers’ behavior will impact your business because you will have to decide how to deal with those who aren’t ready to comply with the safety rules and regulations. Will you sell to them? Will you allow them into your place of business without face coverings?
To protect your customers and employees you may have to consider taking everyone’s temperature. However, will temperature checks make workplaces safe? According to experts, no, not completely. They can help reduce the risk of COVID-19 infections but shouldn’t be the only safety measure employers take.
Business owners, managers and employers should be aware that screening for fevers alone won’t eliminate risk. This becomes a new task for the human resources staff. People with the virus can be contagious without a fever, so it’s still important for employers to increase space between workers, disinfect surfaces and encourage hand washing. Employers have been seen installing Purell or other hand-washing stations in their places of business. A person’s temperature can be taken with a no-touch infrared thermometer pointed at the forehead, and workers can use the devices to take their own temperatures, using hand sanitizer before and after.
Restaurants are typical examples of small businesses and because they deal with food preparation and hungry patrons they’re under tighter scrutiny than other enterprises. They are also suffering more than others.
New research from the National Restaurant Association indicates that the restaurant industry has lost $120 billion in sales during the last three months due to the impact of coronavirus in the United States.
State mandated stay-at-home policies and forced closures of restaurants resulted in losses of $30 billion in March, $50 billion in April, and another $40 billion in May.
The association’s latest operator survey drew more than 3,800 responses, illustrating the extensive damage to restaurant businesses since the outbreak began. It found that the restaurant industry, which experienced the most significant sales and job losses of any industry in the country in the first quarter of 2020, expects to lose $240 billion by the year-end.

Social Distancing Leads to New Restaurant Budget
The social distancing requirement will certainly affect restaurants’ already impacted bottom lines. Foodservice operators need a pre-determined amount of sales per table to be profitable and the six-foot prerequisite will certainly erode their profits.
While waiting to open for al fresco or inside dining, many restaurants have been offering takeout service, which has its own set of new supplies, equipment and cost demands.
Like many retailers and other professions, foodservice also has had to invest in personal protective equipment such as overalls, masks and gloves, which is an extra costly line item. As a result, some American and Canadian restaurants have been seen adding a noticeable COVID-19 surcharge to their receipts totaling 5% of the bill. Will consumers accept that freely?
When given a choice between shopping and dining, consumers have chosen the former. That’s the finding from the latest survey from S&P Global Market Intelligence, which polled 1,250 people between April 30 and May 18. When restrictions let up, 44% of consumers said they planned to head back to stores. But only 31% said they’d dine out. After three months, the dine-out result rose to 40%.
Not that it should deteriorate to a battle between the two business segments, but restaurants can improve their odds by demonstrating the integrity of their menu selections at the time of the pandemic, offer patrons a pleasant and inviting ambiance, and assure them of a safe and healthy environment.
When you’re opening the doors to your business – food or non-food, you should pay attention to these issues: Safety and sanitizing procedures, your staffing needs, and being flexible with your business model.
The latter two points suggest that you should consider temporary staffing adjustments or reductions and not being married to your original business plan if you want to survive.
According to Luke Saunders, founder-CEO of the Farmer’s Fridge vending company, the future of the food business will be different. Among the differentiating points to consider are: food safety will be the new organic question, patrons will trim food-away-from-home budgets, closing the kitchen to the public eye, no more self-serve, 50% fewer tables, lines will not be a sign of success but rather poor management, limited menus and technology dominance.
The CDC recommends that restaurant layouts should be modified to allow for at least six-foot social distancing by marking tables that are not in use. Physical guides, such as tape on floors or sidewalks and signage, should also be used. Crowds should be discouraged through the use of phone apps, text technology, or signs to alert patrons when their table is ready. Buzzers and other shared objects should not be used, and self-serve food and drink options such as buffets, salad bars and drink stations should be avoided.

New Supermarket Traffic Patterns
In supermarkets, consumers that had begun to drift to the fresh produce sections have been seen wandering into the center aisles to buy packaged and dry goods. But COVID-19 quarantines and lockdowns have reversed the fresh trend, with shoppers clearing out shelf-stable products in recent months. 
Nielsen data sent to Food Dive showed exponential growth in these categories over the last nine weeks. Beans saw 82.1% growth, canned and pouch tuna jumped 75.6% and rice sales increased 84.5%​, according to Nielsen figures. 
“During the pandemic, consumers have begun to find comfort and a sense of safety in making sure they have enough food on hand,” Melanie Zanoza Bartelme, global food analyst at Mintel, told Food Dive. “Shelf-stable goods like beans and tuna offer a long shelf life and will 'be there' when consumers need them.”
This touches upon another consumer issue. I’ve seen shoppers obnoxiously defy supermarket traffic patterns clearly displayed on the floor that are intended to limit encounters in narrow aisles.
With the hint of reopening in the air, retail sales in May showed a 17.7% increase, the Department of Commerce announced, numbers that stood in sharp relief to the two previous months – there was a 14.7 percent drop in April and an 8.3 percent decline in March. However, The New York Times reported, “the underlying data presents a more complicated picture and shows just how arduous an economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic will be.
“The May numbers followed two months of record declines, and overall sales were still down 8% from February. Some categories, like clothing, were down as much as 63% from a year earlier. And many of the stores and restaurants that welcomed back customers last month did so with fewer employees, reflecting a permanently altered retail landscape and an ominous sign for the labor market.”
The story notes that “May’s retail sales figures became the latest data point fueling the debate in Washington and on Wall Street about whether a broad reopening of businesses will cause the economy to snap back quickly or if additional stimulus measures are needed.”
While competition among all businesses will be stiffer as the country opens up, those firms that demonstrate strict and visible adherence to official Centers for Disease Control regulations will edge out their competitors. Successful businesses will have to be quicker in launching new products and new marketing campaigns. They should take advantage of seasonal events that are celebrated, often worldwide, every year to promote their businesses such as Valentine's Day, Christmas, Black Friday, Easter, 4th of July, Thanksgiving, Chinese New Year, Halloween, Mother's Day and Father’s Day. Seasonal stories also include the four seasons: spring, summer, autumn/fall, and winter.
Pitching seasonal stories is a great way of getting regular media exposure and as the event happens at the same time every year, business owners can prepare for them in advance and use the same or similar angle year after year. Journalists accept story ideas that are current which makes seasonal stories very attractive to them and the good news is linking your business to a seasonal event and coming up with a seasonal story can be easy.

Digital Economy to be Key
We are heading into an intensified digital marketplace after coronavirus with consumers favoring online purchases rather than in person. Business owners can also benefit from this trend. Nearly 1/3 of small business owners have admitted that without digital tools they would have had to close all or part of their business during the COVID crisis. American small businesses are relying more on digital tools during the COVID crisis, with 76% saying that they’re relying more on digital tools to run their business. One-third of small businesses say that they will rely more on digital tools moving forward from the COVID crisis. A lot of business owners have learned from COVID-19 the importance of adapting. As you reopen, think about the evolving needs of customers & aim to accommodate. 40% of small businesses say they’ve relied on digital tools to find new customers during the #COVID19 crisis; 36% say they have used digital tools to pivot to online sales.
If you’re stuck coming up with a course of action, consider a Bloomberg discovery. In December 2017 Bloomberg made headlines when it published a report that suggested inclusive teams made better decisions up to 87% of the time. The report also noted that having more inclusive decision-making led to swifter decisions. As a contemporary solution, inclusiveness takes into account race, gender, age, and physically challenged people.
Recent newspaper articles have observed that the governments that have apparently dealt well with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as New Zealand, Germany and Taiwan, are those that have women in key positions. A wider analysis will be needed in due course to decide if the mere presence of women makes a difference, but a 2019 World Economic Forum report noted that having women in decision-making positions across different state-level governments in Canada made a measurable difference to health.
In order to attract and keep employees, you may have to consider new perks for them. Two hot ones nowadays are working from home to a greater or lesser degree or working four days a week.
Show your current and potential customers that you are sensitive to contemporary issues such as sustainability which usually helps businesses grow and expand.
All of this is important as the world’s governments claim to want to build back better or rebuild a better world after the immediate health and socio-economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis have passed.
Going forward, seek sound advice from a host of free business consultative services such as the Small Business Administration (https://www.sba.gov/), America’s Small Business Development Centers (https://americassbdc.org/) and its state affiliations such as the New Jersey Small Business Development Centers (https://njsbdc.com/), SCORE (https://www.score.org/) and others.
I don’t know if what’s ahead of us is a brave, new world, but it certainly isn’t for the faint of heart. You had the skills, education, training, determination and attitude to launch your endeavor so relying on these characteristics today should carry you to better days.
AS A BONUS, here is a link to the 50 best blogs that every B2B marketer should follow:

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